Opinion | The Real Surprise of 2024 – How Key State Battles Went Local

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to begin its third term in office, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party, securing 240 seats. This marks the first time in 35 years that a party has won more than 235 seats in three consecutive elections. PM Modi has now become the longest-serving Prime Minister of India in the past 40 years. Although there was widespread expectation that the BJP would score 300-plus, the NDA remains the strongest coalition government since the 1990s. Yet, the opposition is celebrating its increased seat count as if it were a victory for the I.N.D.I.A bloc.

Given the expectations, Verdict 2024 is a “surprise” to many. This “surprise” emerged mostly from the swing states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bengal, Haryana and Rajasthan, where the Lok Sabha election became “local” instead of national, impacting the BJP in some 70 seats.

The BJP secured a vote share of 49.5% in the country’s most politically important state in 2019 and 42% in 2014. In 2024, the BJP achieved a vote share of 41.37%, closer to its 2014 figure.

The Samajwadi Party won a 17.96% vote share in 2019, which has climbed to 34% in 2024. The rise of Akhilesh Yadav’s party is directly proportional to the drop in the vote share of Mayawati’s BSP, from 19% in 2019 to 9% this time.